The pandemic, central banks and climate change
• COVID-19 is a shock and an opportunity
• Pivot to a greener, smarter economy?
• Focus here on climate-related issues
• Our contributions to scenario analysis
• To start: how we view climate change risk
For those who are unfamiliar, the GREAT RESET is a plan hatched a long time ago, which involved using this “pandemic” as an excuse to bring about larger social change. Check out the previous piece on the World Economic Forum.
2. BoC Calls Climate Change A “Vulnerability”
Climate change creates important physical risks both in Canada and globally. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average world temperature in 2017 was around 1°C higher than pre-industrial levels and is projected to rise by 0.2°C per decade. One consequence is an increase in extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes and severe droughts. Insured damage to property and infrastructure in Canada averaged about $1.7 billion per year from 2008 to 2017, up from $200 million per year from 1983 to 1992. Canada is particularly affected—it is estimated to be warming significantly faster than the rest of the world.27
The move to a low-carbon economy involves complex structural adjustments, creating new opportunities as well as transition risk. Investor and consumer preferences are shifting toward lower-carbon sources and production processes, suggesting that the move to a low-carbon economy is underway. Transition costs will be felt most in carbon-intensive sectors, such as the oil and gas sector. If some fossil fuel reserves remain unexploited, assets in this sector may become stranded, losing much of their value. At the same time, other sectors such as green technology and alternative energy will likely benefit.
Both physical and transition risks are likely to have broad impacts on the economy. Moving labour and capital toward less carbon-intensive sectors is costly and takes time. Global trade patterns may also shift as production costs and the value of resources change. The necessary adjustments are complex and pervasive and might lead to increased risk for the financial system. In addition to insurance companies, many other parts of the financial system are exposed to risks from climate change. Banks have loans to carbon-intensive sectors as well as to connected sectors—for example, those upstream or downstream in supply chains. Asset managers hold carbon-intensive assets in and outside Canada. The Government of Canada’s Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance is studying these issues.
(From part 5), the Bank of Canada has written off the oil & gas sector, and others, in favour of “transitioning to a low carbon economy”. It would be nice for those people in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan to have been made aware of this. It’s not like their communities will be gutted.
3. BoC & “Greening Financial System”
In response, central banks are stepping up efforts to assess climate-related risks. The current suite of central bank economic models, however, do not incorporate climate-change effects. Uncertainty over future developments related to climate change also makes assessing these risks challenging. These developments include policy developments, technological developments and changes in the natural environment.
Some central banks and private financial institutions are developing tools to carry out climate-related scenario analysis. Scenario analysis examines different plausible future states of the world. It forecasts a set of situations that could happen rather than predicts what will happen. It can help users evaluate a range of hypothetical outcomes based on different assumptions of what may occur. Scenario analysis is particularly useful for climate change, where the evolution of key variables is uncertain. To be the most useful, these scenarios should be extreme yet plausible. This will give a sense of the full range of possible risks.
Rather than focusing on monetary policy, which is its mandate, the Bank of Canada has decided to wade into the climate change agenda. The BoC alleges that climate change is directly tied to the financial health of the country.
4. Initiative Launched December 2017
The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), was launched on December 12, 2017. It started off with 8 central banks, but has grown exponentially since. Many more, including the Bank of Canada, are now part of this group.
Joint statement by the Founding Members of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System
Financing the transition to a green and low carbon economy consistent with the ‘well below 2°celsius’ goal set out in the Paris agreement and promoting environmental sustainable growth are among the major challenges of our time. In the process of responding to environmental and climate challenges, there are both opportunities and vulnerabilities for financial institutions and the financial system as a whole.
Post Paris, official sector and private-led initiatives have accelerated the awareness of climate related financial risks and the scaling up of green financing. The G20 Green Finance Study Group and the FSB Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures also recommended steps towards encouraging financial institutions to conduct environmental risk analysis and to improve environment- and climate-related information disclosure. We are very pleased to announce today that eight central banks and supervisors decided to collectively commit to establish a Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. The Network will help to strengthen the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to enhance the role of the financial system to manage risks and to mobilize capital for green and low-carbon investments in the broader context of environmentally sustainable development.
This group was started by the central banks of 8 countries. It has since grown to encompass many more. People should be skeptical that organizations involved in the monetary system are getting involved in the climate change industry.
6. NGFS Scaling Up “Green Finance”
This section provides an overview of the workstream’s mandate.
The workstream on scaling up green finance is structured around 3 main topics:
1) Promoting the adoption of sustainable and responsible principles in central banks’ investment approaches
2) Understanding and monitoring the market dynamics of green finance
3) Providing a joint central banks’ view on the various challenges climate change raises for the conduct of monetary policy
7. Mark Carney, Former Bank Of Canada Head
Mark Carney used to be the Head of the Bank of Canada, and later headed the Bank of England. Anyway, this man is now in charge of “UN Climate Finance”, and openly threatens to bankrupt companies who don’t play ball with the climate change scam. It used to be that gangsters would burn down your business if you didn’t pay. Now, they just pass laws to make it impossible to operate.
You know all that hype about the Bank of Canada looking to push some form of digital currency to replace money? Well yes, they are actually looking into it.
9. Should Banks Push Climate Agenda?
Banks, like any institution, should stick to their assigned role and not meddle elsewhere. Why stray so far into unrelated areas? It’s because they have an agenda, and are just using the financial sector as a means and excuse of implementing that agenda.