Author: Ronnie

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What Percentage Of People Entering Canada Illegally Are Allowed To Make Asylum Claims?

A question that often gets asked: What percentage of people who come into this country illegally are allowed to still make asylum claims? Just because they self-identify as refugees, it doesn’t mean that their cases will be forwarded to the I.R.B.

The quick and dirty answer: roughly 81%, or four fifths of them.

Of those making claims: some 59%, of three fifths of those, are accepted by the I.R.B.

Note: The I.R.B. page “says” 59,736 claims were started between February 2017 and September 2022. But adding them manually, it comes to 73,407. Now, these are just claims that are initiated, not necessarily the number of people granted asylum.

As should be obvious: these numbers only relate to people entering Canada illegally. This does not take into account various refugee programs that are administered. And it’s well known that this happens primarily through Roxham Road in Quebec.

This answer was calculated by contrasting data on illegals detained from Immigration and Citizenship Canada, with claims filed with the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada.

Total illegals detained in 2017: 20,278 (starting partially through February)
Total illegals detained in 2018: 19,419
Total illegals detained in 2019: 16,503
Total illegals detained in 2020: 3,302
Total illegals detained in 2021: 4,246
Total illegals detained in 2022: 27,052 (data up until Q3, or September 2022)

Total illegals detained: 90,800 (February 2017 to September 2022)

FOR REFERENCE
Q1: January to March
Q2: April to June
Q3: July to September
Q4: October to December

This is from the various pages available here. The numbers are not exact, but a start. The Immigration and Refugee Board says that 73,407 claims by illegals were made during that time.

If these are anywhere near accurate, then 73,407/90,800 is 0.8084, or ~81%. So, approximately four fifths of the people entering Canada illegally are able to make asylum claims.

A few disclaimers need to be mentioned though.

First, if the percentages seem out of whack, there may be gaps between when people are detained by the RCMP, and when the claims are actually launched. If they are stopped at the end of a quarter, but the claim isn’t started for a few weeks, there will be discrepancies. It looks as though they were busy clearing a backlog.

If a person’s identity cannot be confirmed, or if there are security questions, it can take a very long time before a claim is filed. As such, looking at the longer range is a lot more accurate.

Still, this is a place to begin.

YEAR, QUARTER INTERCEPTIONS CLAIMS WITH IRB PERCENTAGE
2017, Feb-March 1,575 433 27.5%
2017, Q2 2,485 2,159 87.8%
2017, Q3 10,727 8,558 79.8%
2017, Q4 5,491 6,912 ?
2018, Q1 5,052 5,581 ?
2018, Q2 5,692 6,183 ?
2018, Q3 4,982 5,037 ?
2018, Q4 3,693 3,798 ?
2019, Q1 2,698 2,918 ?
2019, Q2 4,009 3,957 98.7%
2019, Q3 5,373 5,148 95.8%
2019, Q4 4,423 4,139 93.6%
2020, Q1 3,035 3,500 ?
2020, Q2 59 360 ?
2020, Q3 108 128 ?
2020, Q4 100 162 ?
2021, Q1 115 216 ?
2021, Q2 78 232 ?
2021, Q3 284 314 ?
2021, Q4 3,769 789 20.9%
2022, Q1 7,049 2,772 39.3%
2022, Q2 9,382 4,512 48.1%
2022, Q3 10,621 5,599 52.7%
Feb 2017-Sept 2022 90,800 73,407 80.8%

Note: Beginning in Q4 of 2017, and Q1 of 2018, it seems that there were more than 100% asylum applications compared to people arriving. The likely reason is that the claims weren’t started right away, making the backlog worse.

Strange, even when there were few illegals coming in 2020 and 2021, it seems that the backlog wasn’t finished off. Guess everyone stopped working.

Now, this doesn’t answer the obvious question about how many people who are declared ineligible actually leave. Either the Government doesn’t keep such data, or they don’t make it easy to find.

The CBSA reported that in 2019 and 2020, some 11,444 “removals” had taken place, but no detailed breakdown is provided. This number apparently includes failed asylum seekers, and people ordered deported for other reasons. The CBSA has also complained that the majority of the removal orders are unenforceable.

More digging will need to be done in a follow-up.

Even when this subject is covered, little in the way of hard numbers are provided. This is one of the better ones. As one point, it was reported back in 2017 that there was a backlog of some 40,000 people. It’s currently at around 17,000.

Also, the totals of 25,789 (accepted), and 18,019 (rejected) are not accurate

As for how many of them are granted asylum, doing a manual count:
February 2017 to September 2022: 29,344 claims were accepted.
February 2017 to September 2022: 20,179 claims were rejected.

Total claims ruled = 29,344 + 20,179 = 49,523.

True, this includes claims started before February 2017, but assuming the acceptance rate is pretty consistent…

If we ignore the withdrawn and abandoned claims (as is done here), then 29,344 out of 49,523 were accepted for asylum. That works out to about 59%.

If the source material is at all accurate, roughly 81% of people coming into Canada illegally are allowed to have claims heard by I.R.B., and 59% of them are accepted. If it’s not accurate, that figure could be a lot higher.

(1) https://www.irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/statistics/Pages/Irregular-border-crosser-statistics.aspx
(2) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2022.html
(3) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2021.html
(4) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2020.html
(5) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2019.html
(6) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2018.html
(7) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/asylum-claims/asylum-claims-2017.html
(8) https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/10/19/new-data-show-69-of-illegal-border-crossers-are-being-granted-asylum.html
(8) https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/security-securite/arr-det-eng.html
(9) https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/transparency-transparence/pd-dp/bbp-rpp/pacp/2020-11-24/km-mc-eng.html

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Danielle Smith Betrays Supporters On Vaccine Passport Ban

In a move that was disappointing, but not surprising, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has backed off on a promise to enshrine “vaccination status” as a human right. This would effectively ban the passes that her predecessor, Jason Kenney, had brought in. The latest video was published on Global News, and involves Smith explaining why this isn’t going to happen. Apparently, the issue is too complex to be handled with a single piece of legislation.

However, the reasoning makes no sense. Jason Kenney brought in the passes by Ministerial Order. This was done without public consultation, a referendum, or any debate. If the Premier wields that kind of power, then surely Smith can ban the use of them in the same way. A Bill wouldn’t even be needed.

This comes despite public pressure for remaining business to drop their own requirements for patrons, clients and customers. In other words, Smith wants businesses to voluntarily do away with the QR codes, but isn’t willing to do it herself.

This was addressed in an earlier piece. If Smith were serious about protecting the freedoms of Albertans, she would come clean on exactly what is happening regarding “public health”.

Over a century ago, an International Public Health Office was created, which we became a part of. This was done without any democratic mandate of course.

1926: International Sanitary Convention was ratified in Paris.
1946: WHO’s Constitution was signed, and it’s something we’ll get into in more detail.
1951: International Sanitary Regulations adopted by Member States.
1969: International Health Regulations (1st Edition) replaced ISR. These are legally binding on all Member States.
2005: International Health Regulations 3rd Edition of IHR were ratified.
2005: Quarantine Act, Bill C-12, is brought as domestic implementation of WHO-IHR.

It should be pointed out as well: the Quarantine Act was the basis for a lot of the content within the various Provincial Public Health Acts. Medical martial law is on the books, courtesy of policies that weren’t even written in Canada. That’s very undemocratic.

Of course, it’s possible that Smith knows nothing about any of this. If that’s the case, it’s scary how a person can wield this much power, without any awareness.

A cynic may wonder whether Smith never intended to introduce legislation in the first place. Perhaps this was a calculated plot to win the leadership race.

Another possibility is that this will come up again in the May 2023 election. Smith can facetiously campaign against the NDP, demanding she be elected, otherwise, face the return of QR codes. We’ll have to see what the next move is.

Just 6 weeks ago, Smith capitulated at the altar of political correctness. People were offended that she called the unvaccinated “the most discriminated group”. Instead of standing her ground, she apologized.

So, are the vaxx passes a human rights issue or not?

And when she says it’s important to have a “proper pandemic planning response for next time”, does she know something we don’t? Can we expect another psy-op like before?

(1) https://globalnews.ca/news/9309856/danielle-smith-bill-protect-unvaccinated/
(2) https://canucklaw.ca/what-danielle-smith-isnt-telling-her-supporters/
(3) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/index.aspx
(4) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=103984&t=637793587893732877
(5) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=103986&t=637862410289812632
(6) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=103990&t=637793587893576566
(7) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=103994&t=637862410289656362
(8) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=103997&t=637793622744842730
(9) https://www.treaty-accord.gc.ca/details.aspx?lang=eng&id=105025&t=637793622744842730
(10) https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/88834
(11) https://canucklaw.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ihr.convention.on_.immunities.privileges.pdf
(12) https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/documents/publications/basic-documents-constitution-of-who179f0d3d-a613-4760-8801-811dfce250af.pdf?sfvrsn=e8fb384f_1&download=true
(13) WHO Constitution Full Document

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Canadian Parliament Has Hearings On Veteran Allegedly Offered Assisted Suicide

In August 2022, a scandal broke where it was claimed that Veterans Affairs Canada had offered medical assistance in dying (MAiD, or euthanasia), to a veteran that called in with PTSD. Understandably, this caused quite the uproar.

What makes this worse is that it apparently wasn’t just a one-time event. There are several cases that have now been reported.

Now, hearings are going on in Parliament about the issue. However, the response isn’t really one that would satisfy most people. It seems that the Government doesn’t ideologically object to members of the Canadian Forces taking their lives. Instead, it shouldn’t be offered.

If there are technical details about it (such as pensions and benefits), then that’s okay to address.

From the hearings and the transcripts provided, this doesn’t appear taken out of context.


(Time approx 16:01 in video). The hearing is interesting as the only issue seems to be with Veterans’ Affairs suggesting assisted suicide in the first place. If this topic is brought up, it’s to be referred to a supervisor.


(From 17:16 in the same video). While this may be well intentioned, it comes across as rather cold. “Talk to your doctor” seems to be a poor way to treat people (veterans) who are seriously considering this option.

It’s unclear when the Committee will eventually release their report, or even what would be contained in it. But these were all-party meetings.

With the expansion of assisted suicide in Canada, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that it would be offered to members of the armed forces. This was never intended to be limited to people suffering with terminal illnesses.

Members of the Committee:

  • Sean Casey (LPC)
  • Emmanuel Dubourg (LPC)
  • Wilson Miao (LPC)
  • Churence Rogers (LPC)
  • Darrell Samson (LPC)
  • Rechie Valdez (LPC)
  • Terry Dowdall (CPC)
  • Blake Richards (CPC)
  • Fraser Tolmie (CPC)
  • Cathay Wagantall (CPC)
  • Luc Desilets (BQ)
  • Rachel Blaney (NDP)

Is this okay as long as Veterans Affairs doesn’t bring it up? It’s explained that the department has no authority on this topic. Fine, but isn’t looking after vulnerable people (both physically and mentally vulnerable) a role that the organization is supposed to do?

How is this considered health care?
Or looking after veterans?

(1) https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/08/canadas-veterans-affairs-offers-assisted-suicide-to-veteran-with-ptsd/
(2) https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/veterans-maid-rcmp-investigation-1.6663885
(3) https://www.ourcommons.ca/Committees/en/ACVA/StudyActivity?studyActivityId=11850743
(4) https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/ACVA/meeting-22/minutes
(5) https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/ACVA/meeting-22/evidence
(6) https://parlvu.parl.gc.ca/Harmony/en/PowerBrowser/PowerBrowserV2/20221020/-1/37828?gefdesc=&startposition=20221020160031
(7) https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/ACVA/meeting-23/evidence

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CSASPP Certification Hearing Approaching For Class Action Suit Against Bonnie Henry

With all the bad news about Court challenges being thrown out, here’s one to keep an eye on. British Columbia may very well have a class-action suit against Bonnie Henry and the B.C. Government get to Trial in April 2023. This comes from the Canadian Society for the Advancement of Science in Public Policy, or CSASPP.

It’s nice to see regular status updates, which should be commonplace in litigation that involves public donations. People don’t want to be left in the dark.

B.C. uses a service called “Court Services Online“, which allows members of the public to search for cases in the Supreme Court, and Court of Appeal. However, it’s behind a paywall, so here are some highlights of what’s been going on.

It appears there have been Court appearances every few months (on average). This is encouraging to see, as long silences make people wonder.

Here are the notes of the decisions thus far, and it’s mostly procedural stuff.

Yes, the courts do proceed at a snail’s pace, but it’s nice to be able to see some progress being made. This is especially important for donors who have chipped in.

There is to be a certification hearing from December 12 to 16, 2022. That’s just a few weeks away. The Judge will make the decision as to whether this class action will go ahead or not.

If the case is certified, then BCPHO Bonnie Henry would be forced to testify under oath. And she does have so much to answer for.

There are a few other (smaller) cases that CSASPP is working on, but this class action is by far the largest. We will see how things turn out.

As for other B.C. news: remember that in August 2021, Action4Canada filed an incoherent 400 page Notice of Civil Claim in Vancouver. Predictably, it was struck in its entirety, although a rewrite was allowed. Instead of fixing the problem, it was appealed for some strange reason.

The CSASPP/A4C comparison is like professional baseball v.s. children’s T-ball. Guess having competent lawyers does make a difference. Then again, the T-ball players generally don’t sue spectators for pointing out glaring flaws.

In any event, the certification hearing in December will be worth watching, and hopefully it will be broadcast online. Below is just a section of the documents that are available. Many more aren’t listed.

DOCUMENTS AVAILABLE FROM CASE
(A) CSASPP 20210126 Notice of Civil Claim
(B) CSASPP 20210321 Request for Assignment of Judge
(C) CSASPP 20210331 Response to Civil Claim
(D) CSASPP 20210531 Cease and Desist Letter to Regulators
(E) CSASPP 20210621 CSASPPs Case Plan Proposal
(F) CSASPP 20210621 Dr Bonnie Henrys availability requested
(G) CSASPP 20210731 Defendants Case Plan Proposal
(H) CSASPP 20210813 Requisition for JMC for 1 October 2021
(I) CSASPP 20210817 Demand for Particulars
(J) CSASPP 20210821 Plaintiffs Response to Demand for Particulars
(K) CSASPP 20210913 Oral Reasons for Judgment Short Leave Application Seeking Stay
(L) CSASPP 20210915 Amended Notice of Civil Claim
(M) CSASPP 20211025 Affidavit No 2 of CSASPP Executive Director
(N) CSASPP 20211028 Proceedings in Chambers Defendants Application for Further Particulars
(O) CSASPP 20221101 Affidavit No 3 of Redacted Deponent Redacted
(P) CSASPP 20221102 Dr Henry and HMTKs Application Response for Webcast Application
(Q) CSASPP 20221115 Respondents Requisition Seeking 16 Nov 2022 CPC to Be Held by MS Teams

(1) https://justice.gov.bc.ca/cso/index.do
(2) https://www.covidconstitutionalchallengebc.ca/court-documents
(3) https://www.covidconstitutionalchallengebc.ca/status-updates
(4) https://www.covidconstitutionalchallengebc.ca/faq
(5) https://www.covidconstitutionalchallengebc.ca/transparency

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Are Taxpayer Funded Dinners A Form Of Corporate Welfare?

A serious question to ask: is it considered a form of corporate welfare when taxpayers are forced to subsidize political dinners?

If a $250 dinner only costs a person (approximately) $120, that means that the public has to cover the rest of it. This sort of thing is completely wrong, regardless of which party is doing it. It’s wrong when it’s Trudeau involved, and not any better for others.

True, the public shouldn’t be forced to bailout companies like Bombardier, GM, Chrysler, Air Canada, or many others. That being said, how is this any different? How are laws which compel the public to finance these get togethers better?

This opinion is reflective of donations in general, not just overpriced dinners.

Of course, Bernier and PPC have much deeper structural problems than this:

  • No elected leader/leadership race
  • No policy votes
  • No internal charter or constitution
  • No governing documents
  • No elected national governing council
  • Dozens of EDAs shut down for not filing mandatory financials

These issues have been brought up before, Now, even if a proper structure were to be put in place, what are the chances of any sort of electoral success? Heck, the “leader” can’t even get a seat.

Bernier won reelection in October 2015, with 59% of the vote. In 2019, he lost with 28%, and again in 2021 with just 18%. Keep in mind, he had the riding for 4 terms, and his father for 3 terms before. It’s even more screwy because his signature issue, supply management, arguably cost him Beauce.

When the head of the party lost his own riding, a safe riding, by 30 percentage points, he needs to go.

While this dinner — and similar ones — may be viewed as cash-for-access, it’s rather amusing considering the complete lack of electoral prospects. It seems that an M.P. pension, a Privy Council pension, and $104,000 annually as a salary isn’t enough.

(1) https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/
(2) https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1594494740053082112
(3) https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/deductions-credits-expenses/federal-political-contributions-line-40900-total-contributions-line-41000-tax-credit.html
(4) https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/
(5) https://www.peoplespartyofcanada.ca/supply-management
(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxime_Bernier
(7) https://canucklaw.ca/4-years-later-no-constitution-votes-or-governing-documents/
(8) https://canucklaw.ca/ending-political-corporate-welfare/
(9) https://canucklaw.ca/elections-canada-fundraising-isnt-okay-when-edas-shut-down-for-no-financials/
(10) https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peoples-party-canada-maxime-bernier-1.5695908

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Some Thoughts On The Fine Line Between Awakening And Demoralizing

This piece is going to be different than what’s normally covered.

The above meme is of Yuri Bezmenov, a Soviet defector. He became famous decades ago for his talks on subversion and demoralization. Even when presented with hard evidence, demoralized people can be unable to see reality. Videos are widely available online.

A criticism that often comes up here is that it’s unproductive to expose a problem without proposing an alternative to it. At some point, trying to wake up a group of people devolves into depression and demoralization, where there’s no obvious solution to anything. Even when alternatives exist on paper, they seem completely impractical to implement.

Another comparison may be between “red-pilling” v.s. “black-pilling”.

A common instance where this comes up is with the problem-reaction-solution scenarios, or the Hegelian Dialectic. This is when it seems that the outcomes are prearranged, and to a degree, they are. It’s challenging to accept answers if it looks planned in advance.

What issues are important? Take a look around this site, and see what things are addressed.

There is a valid point to the notion that harsh doses of reality are needed. In order to come to sensible conclusions, it’s important to know just how bad a problem is. Sugar coating the depth of an issue does nothing to properly correct it. Is there any obligation to offer an alternative, or is pointing out the truth enough on its own?

But the flip side is that completely destroying people’s spirits by showing the depth of a situation may not be that helpful. Outlining in vivid detail how hopeless a situation is will be soul crushing. What’s the point of demonstrating the ugly truth if everyone feels powerless to fix it? Doesn’t draining the will to fight effectively lead to their defeat?

Reality and hopium cannot exist separately. At some point, we need both.

So, where do we draw the line?

I don’t have a clear answer to this, and don’t know if anyone does. Being a truther means going down all kinds of rabbit holes, and discovering incredible things. However, there are undeniable consequences for people who get into this. Constantly being suspicious of everything and everyone gets very tiring. It’s extremely time consuming and not a good way to live.

Anyhow, these are just some random thoughts on the subject.

As always, feedback is appreciated.